What is certain about uncertainty?

That is the title of an article by Cascaldi-Garcia et al. (2023) in the Journal of Economic Literature. I summarize some of the key findings below. Definitions: Risk: Applies to situations in which the outcome is unknown to decision makers, but the probability distribution governing the outcome is known” Volatility. Often used synonymously with risk,…

Decisions under ambiguity

In health care, decisions are always made with imperfect information.  How ambiguity affects stakeholder decisionmaking and in particular how ambiguity interacts with risk preferences to affect decisions is unknown.  A paper by Attema, Bleichrodt and L’Haridon (2018) aims to answer this question using a general ambiguity model.  They find that: For health gains, ambiguity preferences…